After several postponements, and in clear defiance of external criticism and internal objections from political parties, academics, and military generals, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched his "crazy project" - the Istanbul Canal, which will connect the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea. This step is a fundamental change in the landscape of land and sea transportation, not only in Turkey but globally, given the project's economic, political, and strategic dimensions.
The importance of the canal is evident in several key areas, including its waterway nature, its scope of operation, and its anticipated impact on Turkish trade and economy. The Istanbul Canal is a waterway running parallel to the Bosphorus Strait, renowned for stretching 45 kilometers from Lake Küçükçekmece in the Sea of Marmara to the Black Sea. The canal's depth is approximately 21 meters, making it 13 times safer for maritime navigation compared to the Bosphorus Strait, which is known for its high traffic density and requires an urgent solution to improve its service.
The actual start of the project was marked by President Erdoğan laying the foundation stone for the first bridges of the Istanbul Canal. In his statements, he indicated that the project's implementation would take about six years. It is planned that the canal's construction will include 6 bridges connecting it to existing land transportation networks, thereby enhancing logistical capacity and direct transport between the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea.
The Istanbul Canal is expected to bring about a radical transformation in maritime trade. The Bosphorus Strait is expected to become a secondary route for maritime trade compared to the new canal, which will attract ships and giant tankers. Certainly, the canal will give Turkey a greater competitive advantage in the international transport sector, which sees more than 75% of trade traffic passing through sea routes.
The cost of the canal project reaches $25 billion, of which $15 billion is for digging the canal and $10 billion for the surrounding infrastructure. The project is expected to lead to a significant increase in land prices in the areas surrounding the canal. For example, the price per square meter in the Şamlar village has risen from $6.5 to $184, reflecting the enormous increase in property value.
According to economic estimates, the Istanbul Canal project is likely to generate revenues of approximately $8 billion annually. These revenues compensate for returns that Turkey had been deprived of under the Montreux Convention, which controls the passage of ships through the Turkish Straits. Approximately, forecasts indicate that the canal's revenues will contribute to covering the project's costs within just two years.
The new canal stipulates the application of a special pricing system, providing Turkey with sovereign rights in managing those waters. Thus, Turkey can collect specific fees for each ton of goods and ship loads passing through the canal, which enriches the public treasury and strengthens the Turkish economy.
However, there remains debate about the potential impact of the canal on the Montreux Convention, which allows freedom of passage for the ships of countries bordering the Black Sea. The official Turkish position confirms that the Istanbul Canal will not directly affect this agreement, as ships passing through the canal will remain subject to the system of restrictions imposed by the agreement. But the central issue remains that the new canal does not pose a threat to Turkey's sovereignty over its waters, as artificial canals and islands are considered land territory according to the laws of the sea.
The Istanbul Canal, by its nature and anticipated economic effects, is an ambitious project with far-reaching strategic visions that contribute to shaping new features of the maritime and international transport sectors. However, the Turkish government and the project supervisors must succeed in managing concerns related to the environment, navigational safety, and controversy over international deals, in order for the canal to emerge as an engineering masterpiece and a means of promoting the economy and sustainable development in Turkey. Success in implementing this project is not only a catalyst for growth but also carries a strategic dimension in reshaping Turkey's role as a maritime and commercial power in the region.
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